1. Tinubu can never join PDP, a party he bitterly fought against for 16 years. So, Atiku is without a powerful ally that can change the game.
2. Tinubu cannot drag Vice Presidency with his political son, Osinbajo. So, even if PDP offers him such, he will reject it.
3. Analysis shows that if Buhari runs with Osinbajo, Tinubu would have no choice but to remain in APC, as he cannot abandon Osinbajo and support another ticket.
4. No matter what, Tinubu would not want to leave APC, because if he leaves, he will lose the prestige of nominating the Vice President.
5. Governor Bindow of Adamawa would be used to tie Atiku down in a power struggle for Adamawa, distracting him. Remember the corruption case that was used to ‘distract’ Atiku in 2007 until very close to the election.
6.Buhari may hand over the remaining APC machinery in the South West to Tinubu. If Tinubu is happy in APC, chances of Buhari defeat in 2019 are drastically reduced. Gov Bindow will also keep Atiku bogged down in Adamawa.